Quick Read
MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds 713,502 bitcoins with a $54.26B cost basis and reported a $12.44B net loss in Q4 2025 from unrealized digital asset losses, with the stock down 60% over the past year to $159.89. Polymarket traders assign a 79% probability that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin by year-end 2026.
Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors the 2022 bear flag pattern that preceded a deeper 62% capitulation, and a breakdown below the 200-day moving average could push Bitcoin to $40K or lower, forcing MicroStrategy to choose between margin pressure and discretionary asset sales.
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Ran Neuner sat down with Scott Melker on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast and laid out a chart pattern that should make every Bitcoin bull pause. The episode title says it plainly: “Bitcoin To $40K? Saylor’s Big Bet Is Breaking.” The thesis hinges on a single uncomfortable observation about 2022 that most investors have forgotten: the second leg down was significantly worse than the first.
The 2022 Pattern, Step by Step
Neuner walked through the structure: “If you look at 2022 again, you had like the drop, you had the bear flag, you had the drop, you had a bear flag again, then you actually had the very big drop.”
The numbers behind that sequence matter. The first drop in 2022 was roughly 43%. The second drop, which came after Bitcoin retested the bear flag and tagged the 200-day moving average, was approximately 62%. That is the part the bulls tend to gloss over. The pattern did not exhaust itself on the first flush. The Luna/Terra event in May set the stage, and the FTX collapse in November delivered the deeper wound.
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Today’s Mirror Image
Neuner’s framing of the current chart was direct: “Now let’s go back to today’s chart. And unfortunately, it looks like a mirror image.” Bitcoin has just kissed the 200-day moving average and fallen back into a bear flag, the same setup that preceded the larger 2022 capitulation. As he put it, “If it looks like a duck and it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, then you gotta make an assumption that it’s probably a duck.”
The price action supports the structural concern. Bitcoin trades at $76,600.87 as of May 24, 2026, down 12% year to date and 29% over the past year from a starting point of $107,794.01. Polymarket’s $75,000 dip market for May already resolved YES, confirming the downside test has begun.